我国货币政策区域效应的存在性及原因——基于最优货币区理论的分析

早在蒙代尔提出最优货币区理论之时,他就指出了最优货币区的范围可以大于国界,也可以在一国国界之内。本文把常用于国际经济领域的最优货币区理论运用于我国这样一个大国内部,指出我国并不满足最优货币区标准;利用VAR模型和IRF检验也证实我国货币政策存在显著的区域效应。进一步,本文从货币政策传导机制的角度分析得出信贷渠道和利率渠道是导致我国货币政策区域效应的主要原因。最后本文提出推进生产要素自由流动,缩小东中西区域经济差异,顺畅我国货币政策传导机制的建议。     

公共财政、金融支农与农村金融改革——基于贵州省及其样本县的调查分析

本文通过对贵州省及其样本县农户和金融机构的问卷调查和分析,得出了一些实证性的结论。一方面,贫困地区公共财政未能发挥其应有的作用,健全的农村金融体系无法建立;另一方面,将农村金融机构作为支农的工具,进一步扭曲了农村的金融体制。分析表明,只有让公共财政发挥应有的作用,才能进一步改革农村金融体系,形成商业可持续的农村金融体制。     

数据仓库相关问题的探讨

综述了数据仓库的概念、特点、结构及其关键技术，对创建数据仓库系统过程中存在的有关问题进行了探讨，并展望了其发展趋势。     

A Bayesian analysis of a variance decomposition for stock returns

We apply Bayesian methods to study a common vector autoregression (VAR)-based approach for decomposing the variance of excess stock returns into components reflecting news about future excess stock returns, future real interest rates, and future dividends. We develop a new prior elicitation strategy, which involves expressing beliefs about the components of the variance decomposition. Previous Bayesian work elicited priors from the difficult-to-interpret parameters of the VAR. With a commonly used data set, we find that the posterior standard deviations for the variance decomposition based on these previously used priors, including “non-informative” limiting cases, are much larger than classical standard errors based on asymptotic approximations. Therefore, the non-informative researcher remains relatively uninformed about the variance decomposition after observing the data. We show the large posterior standard deviations arise because the “non-informative” prior is implicitly very informative in a highly undesirable way. However, reasonably informative priors using our elicitation method allow for much more precise inference about components of the variance decomposition.     

关于浙江“块状经济”发展的金融支持思考

"块状经济"是破解"浙江现象"的一把钥匙。但在美国金融危机引起国际市场需求疲软和国内市场需求不足的背景下,资金瓶颈已然成为"块状经济"发展的核心"瓶颈"。从金融支持"块状经济"发展的视角,探究其发展的金融瓶颈,探索推动其发展的金融支持策略,对"块状经济"的转型升级及持续发展具有现实意义。     

我国金融发展对居民收入分配影响的实证研究

我国金融发展对城乡居民收入分配影响的实证研究结果表明:金融发展规模是城乡居民收入差距的格兰杰原因;金融发展效率与城乡居民收入差距具有双向的格兰杰因果关系.金融发展规模的扩张扩大了城乡居民收入差距,金融发展效率的提升则缩小了城乡居民收入差距.     

Moving beyond the direct effect of SFA adoption on salesperson performance: training and support as key moderating factors

To our knowledge, this research is the first to focus on the critical moderating role that user training and support play on the relationship between the use of sales force automation tools and salesperson performance (i.e., effectiveness: percent-to-quota and efficiency: average number of calls per day). Hypotheses are tested using survey data from a sample of 108 salespeople in a business-to-business context and archival sales performance information. Moderated regression analysis results indicate that the use of sales force automation tools only enhances salesperson efficiency and effectiveness under conditions of adequate user support and training. In fact, under low levels of user training and support, the use of sales force automation tools was found to reduce salesperson efficiency and effectiveness. These findings have important implications for IT and sales managers since the results show that only under certain conditions will companies realize a return on their investment in SFA tools. Limitations and future directions for research are then discussed.     

Forecasting exchange rates in transition economies: A comparison of multivariate time series models

This article compares the accuracy of vector autoregressive (VAR), restricted vector autoregressive (RVAR), Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR), vector error correction (VEC) and Bayesian vector error correction (BVEC) models in forecasting the exchange rates for five Central and Eastern European currencies (Czech Koruna, Hungarian Forint, Polish Zloty, Slovak Koruna and Slovenian Tolar) against the Euro and the US dollar. Among the specifications composing this battery of multivariate time series models, those with the smallest prediction error still fail to reject the test of equality of forecasting accuracy against the random walk model in short-term predictions, with the exception of the Slovenian Tolar/Euro exchange rate.First version received: October 2002/Final version received: September 2003The authors are grateful to two anonymous referees and the participants in the workshop Monetary and Exchange Rate Strategies Related to the Current European Unions Enlargement Processes, held in Leuven in September 2000, for very helpful comments.     

军民深度融合创新发展：历史逻辑与作用机制

军民融合创新是国家创新体系的重要组成部分。当前军民深度融合发展存在宏观环境约束、社会资本缺失、技术创新滞后等问题和困境,现有研究主要从政府主导作用和融合治理结构等视角提出突破军民深度融合创新发展瓶颈的路径机制,对军民深度融合发展的动力机制和作用机制研究较少。中国历史上通过劳武结合的军事制度实现军事需求和经济需求的协调对于我国现阶段实施军民深度融合具有重要启示作用,这种深度融合方式主要通过主导机制、规范机制、协调机制、互惠机制、保障机制等发挥作用。如何实现军民一体化,发挥各军民融合参与主体的能动性是实现我国军民深度融合发展亟待解决的问题。     

信贷资源配置机制与微观企业盈利能力——基于行业数据的实证研究

信贷资源倾斜能否有效改善企业盈利能力,以及企业信贷优势形成背后的逻辑机理和微观影响,不仅关系到对产业赶超和金融抑制政策的效果评价,也对当前中国工业部门的转型升级具有重要借鉴意义。本文以同质化、低库存、小半径的水泥行业为研究对象,基于中国工业企业数据库提供的大样本数据,对微观企业盈利能力的影响因素以及信贷优势的形成机制进行实证研究。研究发现：（1）以信贷资源倾斜配置为核心的政策性扶持体系实质上拖累了企业盈利能力,政府干预和金融抑制最终会破坏行业竞争机制并造成微观效率损失;（2）水泥企业的信贷优势更多由政企关系、银企关系等非市场化因素主导,而与运营效率和宏观景气等市场化因素相背离,信贷资源的非市场化配置是导致其微观影响效果扭曲的关键所在。因此,推动金融领域供给侧结构性改革、规范政企关系对改善企业盈利能力和实现制造业转型升级至关重要。